ISW Analysis: Russia Uses Negotiations as a Tactic to Advance on the Battlefield and Achieve Its Strategic Goals
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published an in-depth analysis of Russia’s current diplomatic tactics in the context of the war in Ukraine, highlighting that the Kremlin uses the negotiation process as a tool to gain additional military and political advantages. According to the researchers' findings, Russia intentionally dismisses the full cessation of hostilities before serious peace negotiations begin. Experts state that Moscow sets this condition to buy time and create a foundation for further military advancement into Ukrainian territory, as well as to obtain additional concessions from Kyiv and the West. The official report emphasizes that "Russia must agree that negotiations on a ceasefire should precede negotiations on a peaceful settlement," but this condition remains ignored to date. Western countries, including the US and the European Union member states, have repeatedly called on Russia to establish a ceasefire regime to create conditions for diplomatic resolution of the conflict. However, experts note that Moscow deliberately seeks to undermine this progress, recognizing it as part of its strategy to prolong negotiations. This allows the Kremlin to continue advancing in other areas of hostilities, using negotiations as an informational and diplomatic lever to secure the conditions it deems necessary. According to analysts, any genuine move towards a ceasefire would require Russia and Ukraine to undertake separate but comparable negotiation processes, which would involve agreeing on reliable monitoring and enforcement mechanisms for the ceasefire terms. Blurring the lines between negotiations on ending hostilities and subsequent peaceful settlement is likely to delay the process and complicate reaching a final agreement. Key conclusions from the ISW analysis on May 19 highlight important diplomatic events. Specifically, on that day, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation regarding prospects for a ceasefire and pathways toward peace in Ukraine. Official sources note that for real progress, Russia must recognize the legitimacy of Ukrainian leadership, the federal constitution, and the country’s sovereignty—an unassailable foundation for constructive negotiations aimed at peace. At the same time, experts stress that Moscow should demonstrate a willingness to make concessions, particularly in bilateral talks, and avoid ultimatums and pressures that the Kremlin actively imposes during recent meetings. Attention is also drawn to Russia’s ongoing intensive strengthening of military infrastructure along its borders and preparations for possible new aggression against NATO countries, notably Finland and Estonia, where active military activities and deployment of additional forces are evident. On the frontlines, the situation remains tense. Ukrainian military sources report advances in the Kursk region, particularly near Boroova and Toretsk, indicating increased fighting in the east and south of the country. Russian occupiers, in turn, are completing their push in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka areas, reaffirming the ongoing dynamics of active combat. The international community continues to support Ukraine in its defense by providing significant military aid and logistical support, which are strategically vital for countering Russian aggression. At the same time, diplomatic negotiations will persist, and efforts by world leaders to achieve lasting peace remain complex and multifaceted. Therefore, the ISW analysis confirms that Russia uses the diplomatic process not as a genuine search for peace but as another leverage to gain military advantages. The prospects for achieving a just and lasting peace depend on Ukraine and its allies’ ability to counter this blackmail and regain full control over the situation.