Russia Again Provokes Tensions in the Region: Plans for a Demonstrative Launch of an Intercontinental Missile to Intimidate Ukraine and NATO Countries
On the night of Monday, May 19, Russian military forces intend to carry out one of their traditional demonstrative "training-combat" launches of the intercontinental ballistic missile RS-24 Yars. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, this is another step in a series of actions aimed at increasing tension in the region and applying psychological pressure on Kyiv and the NATO alliance countries. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the launch is planned from a mobile ground complex belonging to the 433rd Regiment of the 42nd Division of the 31st Strategic Rocket Forces Army of the Russian Federation. The launch site is near the settlement of Svoobodny in Sverdlovsk Oblast. Sources indicate that the missile to be launched is equipped with a mock warhead, meaning it does not carry a real warhead; however, its launch is meant to clearly demonstrate Russia's capability to deploy strategic missiles if an urgent need arises. The length of this three-stage solid-fuel missile, which is planned to be launched, exceeds 10,000 kilometers, allowing for the potential impact over a vast geographical area. Superficially, this event appears as a display of military strength and technical capability of Russia's strategic forces, but in reality, it is an element of tactical blackmail and psychological warfare. It is worth noting that this launch occurs amid a tense international situation. On Victory Day in Moscow, Russia traditionally seeks to bolster its military rhetoric, and recent calls by diplomats and intelligence agencies further confirm a trend toward escalation. Specifically, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine warned citizens on May 9 about the possibility of large-scale airstrikes, causing additional concern in Kyiv and other strategic centers. Subsequently, it became known that Russia would temporarily close the airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile range on May 12 and 13. This is likely related to planned launch operations, which heighten fears of escalation in military actions. It is expected that this demonstrative launch will be another step in the Kremlin's strategic tactics—sowing fear and uncertainty within Ukrainian society and allied countries, while demonstrating readiness to use nuclear missiles in cases of extreme necessity. Evidence of this includes not only the tactics of loud and spectacular launches but also the closure of skies over key facilities, creating additional logistical and security challenges for Western partners. While Ukrainian defenders and the international community are cautiously observing these developments, the near future will reveal how far the aggressor will go in displays of power and what reactions they will provoke. Usually, such actions have an underlying goal—to increase psychological pressure, intimidate societies, and compel the international players to make concessions in difficult diplomatic negotiations. At the same time, Ukrainian authorities and Western allies remain aware that any use of strategic weapons would be a catastrophic step with devastating consequences for global security. In conclusion, we monitor and await: whether Russia, by demonstrating its military might, can achieve its objectives in the psychological and international arena, or if the situation will spiral out of control, leading to even deeper escalation in the region.