Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Russia Casually Abandons Search for Compromise During Istanbul Negotiations
Analysts from the Institute for Global Security (ISW) express deep concern regarding the course of negotiation processes between Russia and Ukraine that took place in Istanbul. According to their analysis, the Kremlin deliberately prevents genuine diplomatic agreements and aims solely to prolong the war, which seeks to expand Kyiv's territory and force Ukraine to capitulate under Russian pressure. Data from the study indicate that the Russian delegation that participated in the Istanbul negotiations in May 2025 differs significantly from the one representing Russia in 2022. A large portion of the representatives are the same high-ranking officials who were in the delegation at the end of the previous decade. Particularly notable is that Vladimir Medinsky, an assistant to Russian President Vladimir Putin, was officially announced as the leader of the Russian delegation in Istanbul this year. This raises concerns about the agenda of the Moscow delegation, as Medinsky is known for defending the Putin regime and unofficially being seen as opposing any compromises. The Institute’s report emphasizes that the Russian diplomat directly associates the May 2025 negotiations with the start of the negotiation process in Istanbul in 2022, when Russia demanded from Ukraine conditions equivalent to its ultimate capitulation. This indicates that the Kremlin intends to return to these uncompromising demands, playing on the fact that, after three years of war, Ukraine has undergone significant changes on the front: despite difficulties, Ukrainian forces managed to liberate occupied regions of Kharkiv and Kherson, halt the Russian military advance in the east and south, and significantly increase their level of combat readiness. According to experts, Medinsky’s main goal is to create the illusion that the May 2025 negotiations are a continuation of failed earlier initiatives. In their view, such a narrative aims to legitimize Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s capitulation, despite battlefield evidence showing that Ukrainian troops are currently in a stronger position than in April 2022, while Russian forces have substantially weakened due to losses and the low training level of new recruits. The authors of the report stress that this approach by Russia confirms its inability to offer fair and realistic compromises. Ukraine’s efforts, along with those of the U.S. and European partners, are focused on achieving conditions for a stable and lasting ceasefire, which would serve as a foundation for future negotiations and Ukraine’s long-term security. In contrast, Medinsky’s formulations demonstrate Moscow’s unwillingness to make any concessions, maintaining pressure and continuing a policy of maximum force. Discussing the informational front, analysts also focus on the method recommended by the Kremlin for Russian media representatives regarding coverage of the Istanbul negotiations. The document notes that Russia aims to portray its military strength and successes—particularly the alleged improvement in the combat situation—as significant and convincing arguments, ignoring the real challenges faced by its army. To this end, statements are used about “worse” conditions for Ukraine in 2025 compared to 2022, attempting to justify Russia’s eventual victory on the battlefield, explain its military losses, and diminish the significance of Ukrainian gains. Overall, experts unanimously state that Russia’s persistent insistence on its uncompromising demands indicates its desire for Ukraine’s complete capitulation. From their perspective, this approach demonstrates that Moscow has no intention of engaging in constructive dialogue and continues to use military means to achieve its goal—completely destroying Ukrainian independence and bringing the country under its influence. This serves as a troubling signal for the international community and Ukrainian society, which is increasingly aware that diplomacy remains under pressure from forces seeking to preserve the status quo of Moscow’s partial or total victory.