The European Defence Commissioner assures that Russia “will not achieve great victories” in the modern war
Regarding the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, EU Defence Senior Official Andrius Kubilius expressed the conviction that the Kremlin will not be able to secure decisive successes on the battlefield at present. According to him, the situation on the front lines has changed significantly, and Russian forces are unlikely to achieve major victories that could alter the course of the war or force Ukraine to surrender. In his interview with the “Suspilne” television channel and other media outlets, Kubilius emphasized that it appears the situation at the front line demonstrates the absence of opportunities for the Russians to push forward substantially. “The war is currently in a state of rapid change, its nature is much more complex and unpredictable than before. Unmanned aerial vehicles—UAVs—play a particularly important role. It is primarily these that hinder the Russian side, which possesses greater resources, from advancing and significantly shifting the front line,” stated the European Commissioner. He expressed confidence that Russia is not as strong as it seeks to portray and, therefore, in his opinion, Moscow is recruiting North Korean soldiers and actively using Iranian weapon technologies. According to Kubilius, this is a sign of weakness and an indication that Russia is forced to seek assistance from countries that traditionally have a lower level of military training and technological development. However, the EU official remains quite optimistic about the future. He stated that Ukraine is fully capable not only of holding its positions on the front but also of receiving Western support necessary to stabilize the situation and achieve a fair and lasting peace. “I see prospects that coordinated efforts of Ukrainian defenders and international aid will help move the situation from a deadlock. This, in turn, could create preconditions for dialogue and a quiet but confident move toward peace based on justice,” he emphasized. At the same time, Kubilius highlighted that Ukraine deserves the establishment of a just peace, but, in his words, its attainment is only possible through an active defensive stance by Kyiv. He stressed that pressure on Russia should come not only from Ukraine but also from the entire West — America and Europe. “I would like to see a more effective American strategy on this issue, which is already producing results. Unfortunately, as of today, it is difficult to say that Putin is ready for negotiations and to cease hostilities,” the diplomat noted. According to British intelligence, Russia could face record losses and serious problems in the war against Ukraine in 2025. On May 9, British analysts forecasted that by April 2025, the rates of territorial gains by Russian troops would significantly decline compared to previous years, indicating potential vulnerability of Russian forces and a weakening of their advance on Ukrainian positions. This could mean that the situation in Ukraine will remain tense in the near future but also open opportunities for further shifts in the balance of power. Thus, although the war continues and remains tense, leading European experts and military analysts emphasize: Russia will not be able to secure quick or decisive victories, and Ukraine needs sustained, focused support and an active strategy from the West to win. This underscores once again that the situation remains challenging but also holds potential for change and the pursuit of a just peace in the future.