Threat or Deterrence Tactics?
Ukrainian Military Continues to Follow Orders to Respond to the Enemy at Any Moment According to Ukrainian sources, the situation at the front remains tense, but with some significant trends toward decreased activity by the occupying forces. Following a unfortunate tradition, most units operating across various strategic directions — from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donbas — have confirmed that they received clear orders to open fire in response to any aggressive actions by the enemy. This means that even during periods of a ceasefire or short-term calm, service members remain ready for any scenario, but maintain restraint and do not engage in active offensive operations. Based on information provided by frontline sources — including representatives of Ukrainian brigades — artillery activity has notably changed. Indeed, there is a trend toward reducing the intensity of shelling by Russian occupiers. For example, in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, fewer enemy strikes are recorded, less active weapon types are being used, and the frequency of drone launches and artillery explosions has decreased. This can undoubtedly be interpreted as one of the signs of what is being called a "truce," which the Russians unilaterally announced starting from the morning of May 8. At the same time, Ukrainian military personnel warn that this silence is temporary and more tactical than strategic. According to operational reports, Russian UAVs — mainly of the "FPV" type — are used for reconnaissance and fire adjustment. For instance, some units in Kherson have reported that since the start of the quarantine truce, they have not recorded direct artillery strikes, but Russian drones have become more active in the skies. Specifically, on the Kherson sector, a separate brigade defending the area notes the absence of active shelling but observes drone flights daily — and responds accordingly based on existing orders. According to soldiers, they have instructions to open fire only in response, and they have not received any orders to start shooting first. This tactic, they say, creates an additional layer of restraint and helps avoid escalation. In other sectors, notably in Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, the situation shows similar dynamics. Soldiers on those fronts confirm that from midnight on May 8, measures are in place to prevent violations of the silence regime. For example, in the Pokrovsk direction, more than ten incidents have been recorded, including artillery shelling and drone drops — all in response to enemy actions and conducted in accordance with command orders. The situation at the Zaporizhzhia positions is also regulated. Soldiers have received clear instructions to open fire in response if the enemy approaches within less than 400 meters — warning shots are used, and if the enemy refuses to stop, targets are destroyed. This approach aligns with deterrence tactics and aims to ensure the safety of their positions, especially since the enemy actively uses the truce period for rearmament, movement of equipment, and preparation for new strikes. Overall, confirmed data indicates that Russian forces are maximally utilizing the brief "truce" period to regroup and conduct reconnaissance directly on the front lines. They employ drones for observation and fire correction and do not forget to actively use artillery even when a three-day ceasefire has been officially declared. Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel emphasize that orders remain unchanged: in case of any violations of the silence regime — respond, maintaining restraint and composure. This is necessary to prevent escalation and keep the situation under control during the three-day "ceasefire" proclaimed unilaterally by Russia. Meanwhile, it is known that Russia has intensified strikes with tactical aircraft and enemy drones continue to circulate in the sky, creating tension and causing concern among Ukrainian military and civilians. The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office reported casualties from a Russian strike — involving a vehicle and the lives of three women, one of many victims of this war. At the same time, in Sumy region, missile strikes on the night of May 8 resulted in one person killed and two more wounded. Thus, while the "creeping" truce mode holds a certain pause period, Ukrainian military remain vigilant and continue to fulfill their duties according to orders. This strategy of patience and restraint is aimed at ensuring Ukraine’s further victory and preventing escalation of the conflict.