Latvian intelligence agencies have recorded a significant increase in provocative actions and monitoring of NATO military activity by Russia in the Baltic Sea
According to intelligence reports, the Kremlin has intensified its reconnaissance operations and is displaying aggressive behavior near Latvia's borders, which raises alarm signals for regional security. In their annual report, the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) provided a detailed analysis of the situation, emphasizing that Russia employs various provocative tactics to achieve its objectives. The main signs of escalating risks include unauthorized airspace violations, brazen approaches to NATO military ships and aircraft, and a noticeable rise in displays of force in the Baltic Sea. The likely goal of such actions is psychological pressure on regional partners and testing the alliance's defensive responses. Experts from MIDD estimate that these provocations may be aimed both at intimidation and at creating situations that could potentially lead to accidental security escalations. The report notes that the Kremlin uses such actions not only to demonstrate its power but also to discredit the countries and allies of the region, their defense capabilities, and their readiness to respond to threats. This is part of a broader strategy—to test the limits of reaction and gather information about vulnerabilities in the defensive system. Regarding the structural changes in the Russian armed forces, a reform was carried out in 2024, involving the redistribution of military districts. The Western Military District, which traditionally borders Latvia and other Baltic countries, was disbanded and replaced by two new districts — the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts. Experts assess that this is Russia’s response to potential regional security strengthening, especially considering Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. At the same time, it is acknowledged that in the context of the long-term war in Ukraine, Russian military focus remains on maintaining existing positions and stabilizing internal resources. Specifically, a new army corps is being established in Karelia, and two motor rifle brigades, part of the 6th Combined Arms Army and located closest to the Latvian border, are planned to be reorganized into divisions. Similarly, the Baltic Fleet’s marine infantry brigade in the Kaliningrad enclave is preparing for reorganization into a division. The report emphasizes that these changes aim to increase mobility and combat readiness of military formations, but also notes that Russia’s current resources remain limited — most of its military forces and equipment continue to be concentrated in the Ukraine conflict. This accelerates restrictions on strategic and operational-tactical training, probably due to manpower and equipment shortages after a prolonged conflict. Additionally, in 2025, Russia, together with Belarus, plans to conduct large-scale strategic exercises "Zapad-2025," which, based on preliminary information, will primarily take place on Belarusian territory. However, the geographical scale and duration of these exercises will largely depend on the evolving situation in Ukraine, experts warn. The observation service notes that at the current stage, Russian military resources do not permit the conduct of additional large-scale strategic land operations. This serves as an important signal for regional partners and defense authorities in the Baltic states and Europe overall. At the same time, specialists warn that Moscow is actively increasing military activity in other parts of its border with Europe, raising concerns about potential escalation in the future. All these trends contribute to deepening fears among Baltic countries and neighboring states, where an increase in Russian military activity is observed amid its broader strategic ambitions. Most experts and authorities no longer hide their concern that Kremlin efforts are aimed not only at demonstrating power in the Baltic Sea but also at preparing for possible new scenarios of aggression, which could threaten stability and security across the entire region.