From the “Raw Materials Agreement” between Ukraine and the USA, it is unlikely to expect significant financial gains for at least the next ten years, warn industry analysts and experts
Although official statements regarding the signing of this document emphasize its political and strategic importance for both countries, the realistic prospects of generating profits will probably become tangible much later. Experts in the field of natural resources estimate that in countries with a developed mining industry, such as Canada or Australia, the implementation of mineral extraction projects typically takes between 10 and 20 years. In Ukraine, however, this period, considering current challenges, could be much longer. The main issue remains the destruction of infrastructure due to prolonged full-scale war. The country’s energy, transportation, and logistics systems have sustained significant damage, complicating the initiation and development of any mining operations. At the same time, most deposits remain underexplored — the lack of comprehensive geological surveys hampers the assessment of their economic viability. In this situation, potential investors find it difficult to justify investments in a country that is actively at war and facing instability. “If someone imagines that all Ukrainian mineral resources will suddenly start being exported massively within a few years, that’s an illusion. The reality is that investors will be cautious and will seek viable alternatives in countries where security and stability are significantly higher,” asserts Adam Webb, Head of Minerals at the international consulting firm Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. He adds that another major obstacle to developing Ukrainian deposits is their location in occupied zones. Some promising and, theoretically, profitable deposits are situated in territories controlled by Russia, and the agreement signed between Ukraine and the USA does not provide clear security guarantees for investors and companies operating there. Meanwhile, U.S. officials state that American interests will help deter Russian aggression and safeguard these strategic resources. According to official data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, in 2024, the state received approximately 47.7 billion hryvnias (almost 1 billion USD) in royalties and payments for the use of natural resources. However, the real earning potential from new agreements in this sector remains uncertain. The new joint fund, established with the USA within this framework, will accumulate funds only from licenses issued under the new approach. Historical license issuance rates in Ukraine from 2012 to 2020 provide little optimism: during this period, roughly 20 licenses for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese, and one for copper were granted. The background of this agreement with the USA began on the night of May 1, when, after completing Donald Trump’s hundredth day in office, Ukraine and the United States signed the “Raw Materials Agreement.” On the same day, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill to the Verkhovna Rada to ratify this agreement. It was planned that, under its terms, Ukraine would establish the “American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund,” which, according to Vice Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, could begin operations and attract investments into the strategic minerals sector within a few months after ratification. Given all the risks and uncertainties, the main questions remain open. Will Ukraine be able to attract sufficient investments for the full development of its deposits under current conditions? How quickly can damaged infrastructure be restored? And crucially, can the country ensure safe access to its resources in regions under occupation? The speed at which these issues are resolved will determine when Ukraine’s mining industry can start generating real revenue for the budget and providing the country with resources for future development.