European countries have faced significant difficulties in forming large-scale military contingents to deter Russia in Ukraine
According to authoritative sources, even with active support, European armies and governments are unlikely to be able to assemble up to 25,000 servicemen for the creation of an effective "deterrence coalition." This means that ambitions to establish a powerful military presence capable of deterring potential aggression from Moscow remain more an idea than a reality for now. According to investigations by "European Pravda," citing the British publication The Times, internal negotiations between defense ministers and military leaders across the continent reveal many challenges and uncertainties regarding the ability to achieve set goals. During an informal meeting, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace posed an unusual question to his European colleagues: whether they could muster 64,000 troops for potential deployment to the Ukrainian frontline if peace is achieved and an appropriate agreement is signed. Previously, British officials emphasized publicly that London was ready to send up to 10,000 troops for missions in Ukraine. However, sources indicate that in subsequent discussions, European participants expressed growing pessimism. Defense ministers noted that even with all efforts, gathering more than 25,000 troops to deter remains the maximum achievable in current conditions. At the "Decisive Coalition" meeting on April 10, leaders agreed that military operations should consider not only numbers but also logistical capabilities. The next negotiations in Brussels became a more focused attempt to assess the real capabilities of member states to form the necessary military units. At the meeting, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė reminded colleagues that Russia has about 800,000 troops in its army, making it one of the largest in the world. She emphasized that the simulation of gathering 64,000 soldiers is not a sign of weakness but rather a display of Europe's overall vulnerability. Participants openly discussed the possibility of involving so-called special forces, as this could potentially bypass formal procedural hurdles—such as the need for parliamentary approval. At the same time, several key states—Estonia, Finland, Poland, Spain, and Italy—clearly expressed opposition to sending their regular armed forces. According to analysts, this casts doubt on the scale and real possibilities of forming the envisioned "Decisive Coalition," which was intended to function as a sort of international shield in the future. France also announced its intention to allocate approximately the same number of troops as the UK—about 5,000 to 10,000 soldiers. Informants close to the UK government report that Finland and Germany oppose the large-scale dispatch of land forces, although some unofficial voices in Berlin suggest the possibility of such a step. Moreover, there are concerns that without the participation of major countries with strong military and economic bases, the efforts to deter may yield little tangible result. Additionally, the British army—already facing cuts and shortages of artillery systems, trucks, and other essential logistics mostly supplied by the US—would also face significant challenges in this regard. It is also worth noting that discussions about creating a potential "Decisive Coalition" are taking place amid rumors and unofficial reports that the US, in private conversations, has offered security guarantees for this international community to support Ukraine. These signals highlight the complexity and ambiguity surrounding the possibilities and formats of the most active military support. Background: At a recent meeting in Czechia on April 25, partner countries reaffirmed the necessity of pushing for a ceasefire before engaging in long-term peace negotiations. This indicates that discussions about large military formations and security guarantees remain within the realm of pragmatic expectations and internal agreements, while emphasizing the importance of the next steps toward peaceful resolution amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.