The UK Intelligence has shared its insights regarding the goals and strategic intentions of the Russian leadership in the context of this year’s festive dates on May 9
Specifically, they highlighted that the short-term "ceasefire" announced by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, lasting three days from May 8 to 10, is of key importance in Moscow’s policy ahead of the Victory Day celebrations in the Great Patriotic War. Historically, this date symbolizes Russia’s triumph over Nazi Germany, representing an idyllic victory for the Kremlin; however, it is now being transformed into a tool for internal and external propaganda. According to intelligence reports, Russia’s main objective with this move is to create the impression of openness to seeking compromises within the ongoing conflict, as well as to limit Ukraine’s ability to carry out long-range strikes against Russian territory during these critical days. Analysts believe that this is intended to send a signal to the international community and Ukrainian authorities that Moscow is allegedly willing to make certain concessions but does not wish to significantly weaken its positions on the battlefield. Addressing the situation, British intelligence recalls that Russia previously announced a unilateral ceasefire over Easter for 30 hours—a step interpreted at the time as a sign of diplomatic tact and an attempt to demonstrate a "readiness for a truce." However, this short-term measure changed little in the overall course of the war and, according to analysts, was almost certainly aimed at creating a favorable impression for Moscow that hostilities were subsiding, and simultaneously to avoid worsening the Russian forces’ position on the front lines. Furthermore, the British intelligence notes that the Kremlin aims to reduce the risks of Ukraine conducting long-term missile strikes against Russian territories during the festivities. Past years have shown that, on the eve of May 9, many Russian cities and localities have almost canceled or scaled down military parades and celebrations, or marked the date more modestly. This is especially true for regions near the Ukrainian border, where ongoing hostilities and tension on the frontline prompt authorities to make adjustments to planned events. The intelligence emphasizes that this year is no different. Many Russian cities, especially those close to Ukraine, have already canceled or postponed festive events scheduled for May 9 to avoid potential missile or artillery attacks by Ukrainian forces, which aim to reduce risks for their personnel and civilians. In this context, particular attention has been drawn to Serbia’s position, which officially confirmed its intention to participate in the parade on Red Square on May 9. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated he has not changed his mind and will not cancel his visit to Moscow for the Victory Day celebrations, and that the Serbian military unit is already preparing to take part alongside Russian colleagues. Additionally, reports suggest that not only Vučić will travel to Moscow for the parade, but also Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will attend, indicating the formation of a joint European-Russian delegation despite opposition from many European governments. On the other hand, European politicians and diplomatic circles are already urging their publics and leadership to show solidarity with Ukraine and to avoid participating in military celebrations in Moscow on May 9. For example, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, called on European leaders not to support this tradition and to demonstrate their solidarity with the Ukrainian people by condemning Kremlin actions and refusing to officially partake in the celebrations. Therefore, the situation surrounding the upcoming May 9 commemorations in Russia is unprecedented and tense. The Kremlin is attempting to project an image of military strength and diplomatic readiness both domestically and internationally, while also emphasizing its independence and refusal to make concessions. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to insist on a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire, and world leaders are actively exploring ways to support Ukraine and prevent the legitimization of Russian aggression through such festivities. How events will unfold in the coming weeks and whether the Kremlin can create the illusion of peace remain critical questions for regional security and international stability.