The EU may divide Ukraine and Moldova in the path to membership due to the political obstacles posed by one of the European Union member states
The European Union is once again facing the possibility of a split in the expansion process — this time due to the active opposition of Hungary, which is blocking Ukraine's progress toward full EU membership. Such a scenario, considering the political and diplomatic nuances, is quite possible in the near future, especially during the June summit in Brussels, where a number of important decisions regarding the future enlargement of the EU are expected to be announced. European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Marta Häringová stated this in an interview with France Libera Moldova, emphasizing that the integration process of Ukraine and Moldova could be formally separated, allegedly because of Hungary’s diplomatic blockade. According to Häringová, there is a possibility that at Brussels’ meeting later this summer, decisions may be taken leading to the formal separation of the paths of these two countries toward EU membership. Although both Ukraine and Moldova are currently progressing together toward signing accession agreements and have often been considered as a united tandem, the reality might force them to act separately. The Commissioner pointed out that, at present, only Hungary openly opposes Ukraine’s accession to the EU, while all other negotiating member states support initiating the first cluster with Moldova. This undermines the idea of a unified movement for these two neighbors and casts doubt on the longevity of their joint path. Currently, the process of candidates from Moscow and Kyiv applying to join the EU has undoubtedly advanced together — this “parallel track” had its pros and cons. Last year, all 27 EU member states unanimously approved starting negotiations with both candidates simultaneously; however, no concrete negotiation segments have been opened yet. This delay is due to the political stance of Hungary, which deliberately obstructs Ukraine’s progress in the association process by demanding greater rights for its ethnic minorities, particularly Hungarians residing in Western Ukraine. Marta Häringová emphasizes that a young country with relentless ambition to join the EU, given its noticeable progress and active cooperation, can achieve this even before the current European Commission’s term ends, i.e., by 2029. She noted that such a perspective is quite realistic and valuable for the country, which, in her words, “feels like a special student in this difficult school.” According to her, “Moldova sincerely aims to contribute and is perfectly aligned with current challenges, demonstrating genuine readiness for membership.” On the other hand, the Commissioner expressed deep concern over the political backdrop faced by Ukraine’s accession process. She pointed out that Hungary is politicizing negotiations in this context, creating artificial barriers and obstacles to “delay” or complicate the process. Häringová noted that Ukraine has done significant work towards peace and dialogue, facilitating mutual understanding, but Budapest’s ambitions remain politically motivated. This was especially evident in the conduct of a consultative referendum on Ukraine’s future EU accession, announced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. A well-known advocate of Hungary’s national interests publicly opposes Ukraine’s rapid integration into the European community, which complicates even preparatory and negotiation phases. In recent weeks, there have been reports that Hungary is prepared to take even more aggressive actions, including blocking any cluster openings during Ukraine’s negotiations, which casts doubt on further progress. In this context, Moldova, which has already started and holds significant potential for rapid advancement, could simply receive the “green light” later than Ukraine’s candidacy. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine has already gone through the fastest path to EU approximation in history — and no other examples of such speed exist in the practice of EU cooperation. The European Commission has confirmed that the screening and preparatory procedures within the negotiations with Ukraine are being conducted at record-breaking speeds unlike any in the history of European enlargement. Thus, the future of EU expansion involves not just a political challenge and diplomatic balancing but also the potential internal division of the paths of the two most promising candidates — Ukraine and Moldova. This creates an additional dynamic in the process and poses new challenges to EU unity, while also emphasizing the active role of individual countries in shaping the shared European perspective.