The head of Ukraine’s foreign policy department, Andrii Sybiga, sharply called on international observers and analysts to refrain from spreading unsubstantiated claims about Russia’s victory in the war, emphasizing that the real situation at the front is far from such assessments
According to him, the widespread tendency among foreign experts to underestimate Ukrainian military capabilities and consequently overestimate Russian forces creates an illusion of a supposed strategic victory for Moscow, which bears clear signs of flawed conclusions. The minister stressed that this viewpoint is false and misleading for those seeking an objective assessment of the situation. In a comment published on the social network X (formerly Twitter), Sybiga highlighted: "The assumption that Russia is winning the war is a mistake. It is based on a common trend among foreign analysts to underestimate Ukraine and overestimate Russian forces. This pattern has been proven false many times, yet it continues to trap people in illusions." The minister noted that the situation on the front remains difficult, and enemy actions do indeed surpass Ukrainian forces. However, it is important to underline that Russia has not yet managed to break through the Ukrainian frontline or achieve strategic success—despite significant difficulties caused by the winter offensive. Andrii Sybiga stated that over the past months, Russian troops have suffered considerable losses in their attempts to break through, including efforts to apply winter offensive tactics, which have long been exhausted. Russian command was compelled to seek support from troops from North Korea to compensate for losses, while Ukrainian forces, in turn, optimized their defense and managed to repel several small territorial advances, particularly around the Pokrovsk positions. He recalled that the Kremlin set a goal to seize the entire territory of Ukraine within a few months, but this proved to be an illusion. To fully capture the Donetsk region, Russia would need many years, considering the pace of enemy troop advances. In the short term—now nine months since the start of active hostilities in the Kursk region—fierce battles continue, but Russian military advancement is being hindered by Ukrainian defense. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the overall global picture is quite different. Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 became a massive catastrophe for the Russian Federation. Initially, Moscow intended a swift "blitzkrieg" to destroy Ukraine immediately and quickly change the situation at the front; however, reality turned out to be entirely different. According to estimates, Russia has lost over 950,000 military personnel—killed and wounded—since the start of the war. It managed to capture only Kherson in 2022, which Ukrainian forces, with great effort, have retaken, along with regaining control over more than half of the territories occupied since the invasion began. The minister highlighted that Ukraine has significantly strengthened its defense industry during the years of war. The country’s dependence on imported weapons samples has decreased, as it now produces about 40% of the necessary weapons and equipment independently. Specifically, Ukraine has established its own powerful industrial base for manufacturing unmanned drones, which are used on the front lines in over 95% of cases. Thanks to military aviation and drones, Ukrainian forces are effectively destroying targets, enabling them to hit nearly two-thirds of all objects on the frontline. Furthermore, according to the minister, in March 2025, Ukrainian drones identified over 77,000 targets of Russian troops—10% more than in February. The continuous expansion of drone capabilities allows Ukraine to considerably reinforce its defense. "Drones have become an integral part of our success. They provide precise targeting and significantly strengthen our defensive line. This is an example of our ability to respond and act independently in challenging conditions," Andrii Sybiga emphasized. The head of Ukraine’s foreign policy agency concluded that Ukrainians desire peace more than anyone else in the world. We never wished for this war, and achieving lasting peace requires utilizing all diplomatic tools available. "What we really need is strong pressure on the Kremlin and a clear reinforcement of our defense. This will allow Moscow to understand that the situation is no longer under control and that victory for Russia in this war has become unrealistic," Sybiga finished. Amid the tense diplomatic situation, last weekend once again shook the world with a report: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a particularly important period in the coming week regarding support for Ukraine and possible decisions concerning the future of the conflict. According to him, the situation remains tense, and the U.S. has many questions about whether they can continue the strategic course to prevent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. Rubio emphasized that President Donald Trump is carefully considering sanctions pressure on Russia but is not rushing to use this tool at the moment, leaving it as an option for future decisions in the most responsible manner.