Key Diplomacy Circles in the UK: Will the Meeting in London Proceed Without the Highest-Level Leadership?
Significant changes are happening on the diplomatic front regarding Ukraine. According to sources, a meeting scheduled for April 23 in London focused on peaceful resolution in Ukraine may take place without the participation of several key diplomats. Primarily, high-ranking officials from Germany and France, as well as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are unlikely to attend this important discussion. Reports from foreign news agencies—including Sky News—indicate that the absence of Rubio was the reason why Paris and Berlin decided to suspend plans for their foreign ministers' visits to London. It appears there is hope that the political delegation will still assemble in a ministerial format, possibly in the near future; however, the situation remains tense. Simultaneously, the diplomatic mix in London will be complemented by the participation of U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kiet Kelleher. Unconfirmed reports suggest he will join discussions alongside senior officials from France and Germany. This raises hopes that crucial negotiations will still occur despite the absence of the highest-ranking diplomats. It is also reported that Ukraine’s side in London is scheduled to hold a bilateral meeting with UK Foreign Secretary David Lemmie. Ukrainian diplomat Andriy Sybiga is also expected to be in the UK capital to discuss current issues and strengthen bilateral dialogue. Regarding Ukraine, Warsaw and Washington announced their participation in this meeting with high-level diplomats just a few weeks ago. However, the decision to withdraw U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio from participation is seen as a sign of increased diplomatic tension surrounding the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, regarding the partial de-escalation of diplomatic talks, experts generally agree that this reflects internal dynamics and diplomatic games centered around finding ways to resolve the conflict. The background of the conflict surrounding the peace settlement plans is very complex. The U.S. insists that Ukraine recognize Crimea as Russian territory, which has sparked a sharp reaction in Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already officially stated that Ukraine does not consider the occupation of the peninsula legal and has no intention to recognize it, citing constitutional provisions. This underscores the starkly different visions for peace proposed by various countries and actors. Additionally, there are reports from the diplomatic sphere that the U.S. has already handed Ukraine a “final” version of the peace proposal. It stipulates recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, along with some unofficial commitments regarding control over territories occupied by Russia. This has caused strong dissatisfaction from the Ukrainian side, as such arrangements contradict national interests and sovereignty principles. An extra factor is the potential proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt military actions along the current front line. According to sources from the Financial Times, Russia is considering a suspension of active hostilities as part of seeking an agreement, which could alter the conflict’s dynamics and the objectives of negotiations. Thus, the situation surrounding the upcoming talks in London raises many questions. While official clarifications and assurances about the possibility of a ministerial-format meeting exist, the real political environment is likely to be complex and tense. The flow of diplomatic maneuvers at this time indicates deep contradictions among participants and the difficulty of reaching consensus on how to end the war and achieve stability in the region.