The US Agreement with the Budapest Memorandum: Ukraine’s New Trump Card in Negotiations
An updated package of American support could significantly change the game for Ukraine. The United States of America has officially agreed to align the issue of Ukraine’s subsoil management and security within a single agenda, linking them with an important international document — the Budapest Memorandum. This decision has become one of the main news items in the context of the country’s economic and security strategies, creating additional opportunities for Kyiv in negotiations with the West. Details of this new contractual system were published in an analytical review on the "European Pravda" website. According to sources, the author of the piece has familiarized themselves with the text of the "Memorandum of Intent between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine regarding the completion of an official agreement on economic partnership and the reconstruction investment fund," signed on April 17 of this year. The document holds significant importance for Ukraine: for the first time, it incorporates one of the fundamental provisions — linking American aid to commitments made under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which secured Ukraine’s transfer of its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees and territorial integrity. The main and undoubtedly historic innovation of this agreement is that it officially places side by side two components — American assistance to Ukraine and the obligations Ukraine assumed 30 years ago when it gave up the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. This creates new legal leverage for Kyiv in asserting its demands for compensation or in negotiating mutual understanding and future non-monetary arrangements. The article emphasizes that this integration helps Ukraine gain an additional important bargaining chip in its relations with the United States. Kyiv can now credibly argue that it invested significant resources in strengthening global security by renouncing nuclear weapons — the highest strategic asset it once possessed. Experts estimate the value of this aid in “market” terms — considering the quantity of nuclear warheads, strategic missiles, and strategic bombers Ukraine relinquished under the Budapest Memorandum’s conditions. The author notes that such an approach gives Kyiv the opportunity to reasonably demand compensation or clarify the terms of transitional agreements. At the same time, there is a chance to avoid monetary claims by reaching an understanding with Washington, recognizing that both sides have “contributed to global stability.” This could lead to establishing mechanisms whereby either the value of arms is considered in long-term negotiations or both parties jointly acknowledge contributions to security without the need for financial recalculations. It is also worth recalling that during Donald Trump’s administration, the US demanded reimbursement for aid provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, independent sources indicate that this position was softened during recent negotiations — Washington agreed to a consistent approach that considers and incorporates the long-standing assistance and efforts of the Ukrainian government. Overall, the announcement and signing of this document open a new chapter in Ukraine’s relations with the West concerning security, economics, and legal regulation. Sources suggest that this move has the potential to convincingly demonstrate to the international community that Kyiv is capable not only of defending itself but also of persistently asserting its position on fair compensation and agreements. Further consultations and negotiations planned on this matter will help outline specific mechanisms for implementing this principle and integrating it into the international legal space — a development that will undoubtedly strengthen Ukraine’s positions in future diplomatic and strategic negotiations. Thus, the US’s agreement to link the mineral management deal with the Budapest Memorandum represents an important step not only in enhancing guarantees for protecting Ukrainian territory and sovereignty but also in elevating Kyiv’s authority as an equal and direct participant in the global security and diplomatic systems.